Daily Market Outlook, April 8, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

A two-week ceasefire has been established between the US and Iran, providing a much-needed sense of relief to financial markets amidst the intense rhetoric from President Trump just yesterday. This development explains the robust rebound in Asian equities overnight, with the Nikkei soaring over 5%, as well as the significant decline in oil prices, with Brent crude plummeting from around $110 per barrel to as low as $91.70. However, the initial optimism in the markets won't last long without addressing what comes next. A key indicator will be whether traffic can resume through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian statement about ensuring "safe passage...through coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces" raises questions about its compatibility with Trump's demand for "the complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait. Additionally, as talks between the two nations are set to commence on Friday, there’s a risk of negotiations collapsing due to some of the contentious demands outlined in Iran's ten-point plan. Even if diplomatic resolutions and peace prevail in the coming weeks, the financial markets are likely to experience lasting effects. For example, even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, damage to regional energy infrastructure could lead to supply constraints for an extended period. Examining the UK natural gas futures curve reveals that prices are expected to remain elevated for nearly a year, in stark contrast to the oil market, which shows a more pronounced backwardation over a shorter timeframe. This is particularly relevant given how natural gas prices influence the OFGEM price cap on household energy bills. Consequently, even in a scenario where the ceasefire holds, the inflationary repercussions from the damages incurred thus far could still have significant effects on both monetary and fiscal policy. The outlook for interest rates remains complicated. The anticipation of rate hikes may have overshot during the height of the conflict, suggesting that a downward adjustment in expectations is reasonable following news of the ceasefire. However, with wholesale energy prices likely taking time to stabilise, there is also a risk that the markets could overcorrect in a dovish direction. Assuming that (a) the ceasefire endures and (b) this leads to viewing last month's disruptions as merely a temporary blip in energy costs may be overly simplistic. Given that policymakers have indicated they will not rush their responses to this crisis, there’s a chance that while market rate expectations fluctuate dramatically, actual policy rates may remain unchanged for some time.

While the ongoing war in Iran understandably captures much of the attention regarding economic forecasts, we must not overlook the recent wave of doctors' strikes taking place from April 7 to April 13. As we've observed, the UK’s trend growth has been on a downward trajectory, even as the health sector's contribution to overall output continues to rise. This shift means that fluctuations in health sector activity now have a more pronounced effect on GDP growth than in the past, making these strikes particularly impactful. To illustrate, the last three five-day strikes by doctors occurred in July, November, and December of 2025, and each time, we saw a contraction in the monthly GDP figures for the human health sector. This history suggests that the current industrial action could potentially shave off about 0.1% of the overall monthly GDP growth for April, assuming all other factors remain constant. After a stagnant GDP performance in January and weaker retail activity in February, it appears that this potential setback at the beginning of Q2 is poised to follow a somewhat lacklustre Q1. While much of the discourse surrounding the Middle East conflict has focused on inflation, we should remain vigilant about how these developments might pose risks to economic activity moving forward.

Overnight Headlines

  • Trump Suspends Iran Attack For 2-Weeks, Subject To Hormuz Opening

  • Brent Slumps 16% At Open As US, Iran Agree To Two-Week Ceasefire

  • Treasuries Rise As Ceasefire Spurs Oil Drop, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes

  • Fed’s Jefferson Says Rates Well Positioned Amid Uncertainty

  • Fed’s Jefferson Sees Risks To Both Employment, Inflation

  • New Zealand Holds Key Rate As Fuel-Price Surge Fans Inflation

  • Japan’s Real Wages Rise Most Since 2021 To Keep BoJ On Hike Path

  • Onshore Yuan Advances To Three-Year High On Iran Ceasefire Boost

  • Bitcoin Jumps To Three-Week High On US-Iran Ceasefire Plan

  • Asian Markets Stage Relief Rally, Oil Drops On Trump-Iran Cease-Fire

  • JGBs Rise As Inflation Concerns Ease After Trump’s Cease-Fire Agreement

  • Moody’s Outlook On Blue Owl Fund Negative As Redemption Requests Rise

  • Coinbase Plans Australia Expansion After Securing AFSL Licence

  • China’s TikTok To Build A Second Billion-Euro Data Centre In Finland

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

  • Wednesday 08/04

  • EURUSD: 1.1400 (€2.5bn), 1.1450 (€1.4bn), 1.1475 (€560m), 1.1560 (€863m), 1.1605 (€952m), 1.1610 (€973m), 1.1625 (€1.6bn), 1.1700 (€1.0bn), 1.1750 (€785m)

  • USDJPY: 158.00 ($621m), 158.45 ($700m), 160.00 ($1.1bn)

  • GBPUSD: 1.3200 (£545m)

  • Thursday 09/04

  • EURUSD: 1.1500 (€2.5bn), 1.1525 (€550m), 1.1540 (€601m), 1.1550 (€899m), 1.1560 (€1.0bn), 1.1575 (€905m), 1.1590 (€677m), 1.1600 (€1.8bn), 1.1600-10 (€3.8bn), 1.1635 (€1.1bn), 1.1650 (€805m), 1.1660 (€659m), 1.1680 (€815m), 1.1725 (€628m), 1.1770 (€900m)

  • USDJPY: 158.00 ($657m), 161.00 ($1.3bn)

  • GBPUSD: 1.3325 (£538m), 1.3340 (£700m)

  • EURGBP: 0.7800 ($1.1bn)

  • AUDUSD: 0.6980 (A$584m), 0.7050 (A$1.6bn), 0.7155 (A$704m), 0.7175 (A$1.0bn)

  • EURGBP/other euro cross: 0.8800 (€1.0bn)

CFTC Positions as of April 3, 2026: 

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 138,404 contracts to 1,586,840

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 142,176 contracts to 784,063

  • Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 855 contracts to 1,637,324

  • Speculators trim CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 11,058 contracts to 268,129

  • Speculators switch CBOT US Treasury bonds futures to a net short position of 31,633 contracts (vs. 6,570 net longs a week ago)

  • Bitcoin net long position is 2,253 contracts

  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -29,871 contracts

  • British pound net short position is -52,665 contracts

  • Euro net long position is 507 contracts

  • Japanese yen net short position is -72,872 contracts

  • Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 113,496 contracts to 215,932

  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 39,730 contracts to 912,682.


Technical & Trade Views

SP500

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 6700 Target 6900

  • Below 6600 Target 6400

EURUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.1625 Target 1.1750

  • Below 1.15 Target 1.1350

GBPUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.35 Target 1.3650

  • Below 1.3485 Target 1.3150

USDJPY 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 159 Target 161.50

  • Below 157 Target 156

XAUUSD

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 4550 Target 5000

  • Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 79.5k Target 81.5k

  • Below 78k Target 53k

1 / 6