Gold Falling Ahead of FOMC Mins
Gold Down on US/Iran Strike News
Gold prices are back under pressure today as news of fresh US strikes against Iran overnight help lift USD. We also have the FOMC minutes coming later today which are expected to lean on the hawkish side, further bolstering USD and weighing on gold. Overnight, the US military launched a series of missile strikes on around 80 Iranian sites in response to the recent string of Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The scale of the attack reflects a clear escalation in hostilities and with Iran vowing to take retaliatory action, we’re seeing both crude and USD higher today, putting downside pressure on gold. Any news of any further attacks from either side should exacerbate the current market dynamic, pushing gold down lower.
FOMC Mins Due
Looking ahead today, focus will also be on the June FOMC minutes due this evening. Given the hawkish shift we saw at the meeting, risks are skewed to the upside for UD meaning gold is vulnerable to deeper selling if the minutes are found to be hawkish. Nine out of eighteen policymakers cited forecasts for at least one hike this year, up from zero members in March. As such, details around those decisions are likely to offer USD some near-term support, creating downside risks for gold through the back of the week, particularly when coupled with current developments in the Middle East.
Technical Views
Gold
The recent rebound in gold looks to be over for now with price turning back below the bull trendline (triangle lows) and 4,092.60 level. With momentum studies falling too, focus is on the 3,898.03-level next and the bear trend lien support just below that with 3,707.64 the deeper level to note.
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